Year 2000 Problem
Makes Experience Pay Off 

The hunt for computer programmers who can solve the Year 2000 crisis is verging on panic.

On Jan. 1, 2000, computers worldwide will interpret year 00 to be 1900. Left unsolved, it would disrupt everything from airline reservations to mortgage processing. It's the most expensive computer problem in history: $20 billion to $30 billion to fix government computers alone, according to the General Accounting Office.  Worldwide, the Y2K computer problem will cost in excess of one trillion (that trillion with a T) dollars.

Driving up this cost is the increased demand and decreased supply of at least 500,000 programmers who can read and write programs written in COBOL and other programming languages (Fortran,  P/L1, etc) that were more popular in the 01960's and 01970's. There is a common mis-perception  that these languages are obsolete and no longer in use - that they are irrelevant in  today's IT industry with modern technology.  After all, how can an application development language created in an age of batch processing and procedure-based programs be relevant in today's IT world of interactive applications and object based technology. The answer is that these languages  evolved along with the technology.  Today's COBOL is not your father's COBOL. As for COBOL's obsolescence, the truth is these languages account for more than 60% of all the business applications in use today by corporations around the world.  The durability of the applications written in COBOL proved to be much greater than anyone had expected.  As a result, here we are at the dawn of the new millennium running applications written 20 and 30 years earlier (albeit, enhanced and improved).  The shortsightedness of system designers and programmers in the 01960's and 01970's is responsible for today's Y2K problems, not the language(s) used to create those systems.  It's like blaming the messenger for the consequences of the message.  All of this has led to a tremendous shortage of COBOL programmers. "I was really discouraged and depressed for a long time," says Harry Miller, 36, of San Diego, a programmer who was laid off in 1989 by General Dynamics. He's been working long hours as a restaurant manager since 1993. His computer skills were so rusty that he logged onto the Internet for the first time four weeks ago.

He doesn't even own a personal computer. But because he knows COBOL, his phone is ringing an average eight times a day with job offers from all over the country. When he left the business in 1989, he was making $26,500 a year. He's already had an offer for $58,000, and recruiters say wages will go higher when the government quits studying the problem and joins private industry in fixing it.

Wages are one problem, headhunting another. "It got crazy right after New Year's," says an unnamed CEO quoted in the Federal Reserve's March 12 "beige book" on regional economic conditions. "Companies are paying up to $25,000 additional per year to pirate programmers away from my company."

Employers are wising up, offering bonuses of up to 150% of salary to those who stay until the project is finished, says Michael O'Connell, a research analyst at technology research firm Gartner Group. Hiring bonuses are common in the high-tech field. "But I've never seen this before," O'Connell says.

Adding to the shortage: Leery programmers don't want to spend the next three years working in COBOL for fear that they will again be dinosaurs after 2000 as the industry moves beyond hot languages such as C++ and Java.

Many companies promise retraining as part of the package, O'Connell says.

For years, COBOL programmers made abut $30 an hour, when they could get work, says Charles Barr, 53, of Las Vegas, who began writing COBOL with punchcards in 1968.

Pay hikes began in 1996, Barr says. "I don't think any are making $100 an hour yet. They might be within a year."

By Del Jones, USA TODAY   

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